The TOOLBOX is designed as a powerful add-on to the CURVE 2 software. The focus is on the creation of price models that are used in the CURVE 2 software to model the front-end and intraday structures of the PFCs.
The TOOLBOX consists of the following standard components:
Provision of data from the CURVE 2 database for modeling, including prepared historical price data sets for futures and spot prices, historical wind and solar feed-in, etc.
Based on pattern recognition algorithms, regular cycles are rolled out as statistically optimized time series. The methodology is applied to spot prices as well as to the influence of renewable energy input on these prices (application-specific daily / hourly / quarter-hourly). Energy feed-in profiles can also be analyzed on an hourly basis and rolled out for forecasting, whereby expansion targets can be specified by the user.
Determined seasonalities are combined with stochastic characteristics to create multi-factor models that can be used to create both current market expectations and simulations. These models can be used directly in the CURVE 2 software. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate the models directly into the SHAPE 2 software in order to analyze schedule risks.
As a complementary component to the TOOLBOX, the simulation tool is optionally available as a basis for your own evaluation and analysis projects. In order to create current simulations for spot and futures prices in just a few steps, the multi-factor price models from the model tool are combined to form a cross-commodity model. The simulations created can be used in subsequent processes, for example, to carry out internal evaluations and derive individualized risk ratios and intervals.